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CII Forecasts 6.4–6.7% GDP Growth for FY26 and Unveils Industry Reform Blueprint

Robust consumer demand fueled by central bank liquidity injections under a healthy monsoon forecast drives the projection despite geopolitical uncertainty.

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Overview

  • At his first press conference as CII president in New Delhi on July 3, Rajiv Memani forecast India’s economy to expand 6.4–6.7% in 2025-26.
  • He pointed to a 100-basis-point CRR cut and a 50-basis-point rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of India that unlocked about ₹2.5 lakh crore of liquidity.
  • Memani identified geopolitical uncertainty and external trade tensions as the main downside risks to sustaining growth momentum.
  • The CII recommended trimming GST slabs from five to three tiers with rates at 5%, 12–18% and 28% to simplify the indirect tax structure.
  • The industry body also urged rationalizing input tax credits, coordinating state audits, establishing a National Appellate Authority and enacting direct tax reforms with advance pricing agreements to reduce litigation.