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CIA Sees Deepening Cuban Crisis Without Predicting Regime Collapse

A cautious intelligence view contrasts with presidential declarations of imminent collapse.

Overview

  • U.S. intelligence reporting portrays a bleak outlook for Cuba’s economy, with key sectors such as agriculture and tourism hurt by frequent blackouts and trade sanctions.
  • Coverage indicates that disrupted Venezuelan oil supplies following U.S. military action in Caracas could intensify Cuba’s energy shortages.
  • President Donald Trump has asserted that “Cuba looks ready to fall,” tying the island’s vulnerability to the loss of Venezuelan crude and related income.
  • Cuban authorities have moved to cut subsidies and raise controlled prices to curb deficits as 2025 inflation reached about 27% and food insecurity was estimated at roughly 21%.
  • La Vanguardia reports that 32 Cuban members of Nicolás Maduro’s guard were killed in the operation in Venezuela, while remittances estimated near $12 billion are helping many households endure the crisis.