Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Neck‑and‑Neck as Lula Seeks Quick Congressional Wins

Overview

• This week Quaest polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro running nearly even in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the three states that together supply more than 40% of decisive votes.
• Both leading campaigns have shunned long interviews and jointly boycotted the Band presidential debate to favor tightly controlled events and avoid tough unscripted questioning.
• Lula met with Chamber president Hugo Motta and Senate president Davi Alcolumbre and secured a pledge to fast‑track high‑visibility measures next week, including a measure to end the so‑called “taxa das blusinhas,” a PEC to end the 6x1 work scale and a security PEC.
• The Federal Police are investigating Fábio Luís (Lulinha) for alleged use of privileged access and their director has flagged suspected selective leaks tied to an STF minister, a dispute the AGU is trying to contain without formal legal escalation.
• Market analysts warn that Brazil’s rigid budget structure, high interest rates and a fragmented Congress make credible, large fiscal adjustments unlikely under either candidate and point to rising public debt irrespective of the election outcome.