Overview

• Independent Chinese producers such as Geo-Jade Petroleum, United Energy Group and Zhongman Petroleum are on track to increase their collective output in Iraq to 500,000 barrels per day by around 2030 under profit-sharing terms.
• Smaller Chinese firms have slashed drilling costs to roughly $4–5 million per well and can bring new fields online in two to three years, compared with five to 10 years for Western operators.
• Geo-Jade’s $848 million South Basra project aims to revive the Tuba field to 100,000 bpd by mid-2027 and includes plans for a 200,000 bpd refinery and petrochemical complex.
• Baghdad’s 2024 pivot from fixed-fee to profit-sharing contracts filled the void left by ExxonMobil and Shell cutbacks and drew in faster, lower-cost Chinese independents.
• Western majors TotalEnergies and BP have unveiled $27 billion and up to $25 billion investments respectively, and ExxonMobil and Chevron are in talks over fresh Iraqi field developments.