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Chinese EV Push Accelerates: UBS Sees One-Third Global Share by 2030 as 2026 Targets Surge

Legacy automakers report weaker 2025 sales in China, highlighting intensifying pressure from expanding Chinese brands.

Overview

  • UBS analysts project Chinese electric vehicles could reach roughly one-third of the global market by 2030, noting risks from European adoption slowdowns and tariffs.
  • Chinese automakers are localizing production to support exports, with assembly or factories established in Thailand, Brazil and Hungary.
  • Industry tallies from 36Kr show nine groups have outlined 2026 sales goals totaling about 18.34 million vehicles despite a cooling domestic market and reduced purchase‑tax incentives.
  • Xpeng set an internal 2026 goal of 550,000–600,000 vehicles and plans four new SUVs, according to 36Kr, with a heavier emphasis on intelligent driving.
  • Mercedes‑Benz said 2025 global sales fell 9% to 1.8 million with China down 19%, while Volkswagen reported 8,983,900 deliveries for 2025 and an 8% decline in China.