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Chinese Car Share in Russia Falls Below 50% as AvtoVAZ Pushes Localization and Dealers Cut 2025 Outlook

China is poised to keep its lead in global car exports on surging EV shipments.

Overview

  • AutoStat reports Chinese brands accounted for 49.6% of new-car sales in Russia in October, or 82,200 vehicles, the first sub‑50% share since July 2023.
  • Analysts attribute the share shift partly to models assembled under local brands in Russia and Belarus, including Belgee, Tenet and Xcite.
  • The dealers’ association ROAD now forecasts a 10–15% decline in 2025 sales to about 1.45 million vehicles after an October spike tied to pre‑buying ahead of a higher recycling fee.
  • AvtoVAZ says Lada Iskra output in Saint Petersburg will top 3,000 units by year-end, with combined Saint Petersburg and Togliatti lines running at about 15 cars per hour.
  • AvtoVAZ plans to finish Lada Azimut certification before serial production in the first half of 2026, with about 100 test cars built and new 1.6‑ and 1.8‑liter engines rolling out first on Azimut and then on other Lada models.