Overview
- At Tsinghua University’s AGI-Next summit in Beijing, Alibaba Qwen lead Lin Junyang said the chance of any Chinese firm surpassing U.S. AI giants in the next three to five years is below 20%.
- Lin cited U.S. access to computational resources one to two orders of magnitude larger, noting that OpenAI devotes vast capacity to next‑generation research.
- He added that most compute in China is tied up meeting daily commercial demand, leaving little for frontier experimentation.
- Zhipu AI co-founder Tang Jie echoed the caution, saying perceptions of recent gains may mask a gap that could be widening.
- Coverage highlighted shortages of advanced chips and chipmaking equipment under U.S. export controls, even as Chinese models narrow benchmark gaps and are widely open-sourced.