Overview
- Customs data show the year‑to‑date goods surplus surpassed $1 trillion by November, with a single‑month surplus of about $112 billion, the highest since June.
- Exports rose roughly 5.7% in January–November as shipments to the United States fell about 18–19%, with flows redirected to Europe (+8.9%), Southeast Asia (+14.6%) and Africa (+27.2%).
- Companies shifted from transshipment to relocating production to Southeast Asia, Mexico and parts of Africa as rules of origin tightened, helping sustain access to key markets under U.S. tariffs.
- The export mix moved upmarket, with gains in ships (~27%), semiconductors (~25%) and automobiles (~17%), and electric vehicles remaining a notable component.
- Weak domestic demand kept imports subdued, a weak yuan bolstered pricing power, Beijing pledged more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary settings, and the EU advanced trade remedies as France’s Emmanuel Macron warned the imbalances were “unbearable.”