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China’s Soybean Freeze Hammers U.S. Farmers as Trump Weighs $10–15 Billion Aid

Harvest is colliding with scarce buyers, forcing sales at steep discounts.

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DWIGHT, ILLINOIS - APRIL 28: In this aerial view, Dan Duffy uses a tractor to plant soybeans on land he farms with his brother on April 28, 2025 near Dwight, Illinois. Duffy, like many farmers, is concerned about the long-term impact tariffs may have on soybean exports to China as China looks to other countries like Brazil and Argentina, the world's largest and third largest producers of soybeans, for a cheeper alternative. More than 40 percent of the grain produced in Illinois is sold for export. The state exported about $2.4 billion worth of soybeans last year, $805 million to China. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • USDA data show China has not booked any U.S. soybeans for the 2025–26 season, with year-to-date sales to China running far below last year.
  • Rapid harvesting is straining storage; analysts estimate crop size exceeds capacity by roughly 33% in North Dakota, 26% in South Dakota, and 15% in Nebraska.
  • Local cash prices have slumped, with North Dakota’s soybean basis hitting a record $1.50 under futures and many farmers receiving under $9 per bushel.
  • The White House is exploring a $10–$15 billion relief package funded through tariff revenues or Commodity Credit Corporation authority, but the federal shutdown and limited CCC balances are delaying design and delivery.
  • China continues sourcing heavily from Brazil and Argentina, raising risks of lasting U.S. market-share losses as Trump says he will press Xi on soybeans at an expected APEC meeting later this month.