Overview

• Official customs data show exports rose 8.3% year on year in September and imports increased 7.4%, the fastest paces since March and April 2024 respectively, beating market forecasts.
• China’s shipments to the United States fell about 27% from a year earlier but climbed month to month to $34.3 billion, underscoring a partial recovery in flows to its largest single market.
• Exports to other partners strengthened, with sales to the European Union up 14.2% year on year and to ASEAN up 15.6%, pointing to diversification beyond U.S. demand.
• President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods starting November 1, and China’s Ministry of Commerce denounced the move as undermining global trade stability and confidence.
• Economists attribute the rebound to demand for electronics and machinery plus improved logistics and lower shipping costs, while cautioning that renewed tariffs or softer external demand could stall momentum.