Overview
- Brazil supplied about 10.96 million tons, roughly 85% of September arrivals, while Argentina shipped around 1.17 million tons, near 9%, aided by a brief export-tax suspension.
- Customs data show no purchases from this autumn’s U.S. crop, with Chinese buyers covering needs through at least November from South American cargoes.
- Analysts attribute the lack of U.S. shipments to Chinese tariffs and the depletion of old-crop U.S. beans that often bridge seasonal gaps.
- Trade watchers warn China could face a February–April supply gap if Brazilian shipments ebb and no breakthrough in talks restores access to U.S. supplies.
- U.S. farmers risk significant losses as Chinese crushers stick with South American beans, while officials from both countries prepare for renewed negotiations later this month.