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2h ago

China’s September Factory Signals Split: Official PMI Shrinks, Private Survey Accelerates

A private S&P Global poll points to the fastest manufacturing growth since March with export orders returning to expansion.

Visitors take a cart tour at a public park along the Shenzhen Bay against the high-rise office buildings, some of which are under construction, in Shenzhen, China's Guangdong province, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
Employees move copper rod on a pallet on the production line for copper flat wire at the Wellascent factory in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, China August 14, 2025. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
Workers take nap on a bench of a public park during a lunch break hour near a construction site, at the Shenzhen Bay, in Shenzhen, China's Guangdong province, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
Construction workers operate on a construction site in Shanghai, China, July 10, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura/File Photo

Overview

  • China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in September but stayed below 50 for a sixth month, marking a continued contraction.
  • The private RatingDog/S&P Global manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 from 50.5, the quickest expansion since March on stronger new orders and faster output.
  • New export orders increased for the first time since March, yet factory employment continued to decline, though the pace of job losses eased.
  • Policymakers outlined targeted support as the state planner moved to deploy 500 billion yuan in policy-based financing and the central bank signaled available tools while holding rates steady.
  • Trade tensions remain a drag, with a pause in steep U.S. tariff hikes extended until November and unresolved TikTok ownership talks clouding prospects for a broader deal.