Overview

• China’s Central Committee will hold a closed-door plenum from Monday to Thursday, with a brief outline of the 2026–2030 plan due at the close and fuller guidance expected the following week.
• The blueprint is expected to prioritize technological self‑sufficiency and “new productive forces” such as AI, semiconductors, robotics and biotech, reinforcing a production‑first approach.
• Analysts see no explicit multi‑year GDP target in the outline, with Beijing likely aiming implicitly for roughly 4.5% average annual growth while keeping the urban jobless rate near 5.5%.
• Post‑plenum statements are expected to feature modest livelihood language on social security and healthcare, which experts say does not signal a shift away from industry‑led policy.
• Observers anticipate personnel updates and disciplinary moves, with attention on probes involving senior figures and recent unexplained replacements, against a backdrop of U.S. tariff threats and tighter Chinese rare‑earth controls.