Overview

• China's trade surplus reached a historic $1.6 trillion in 2024, with exports to the U.S. growing 15.6% in December as businesses rushed to complete orders before higher tariffs take effect.
• President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods, escalating the risk of a trade war that could significantly impact China's export-reliant economy.
• China's economy faces challenges of weak domestic demand, overcapacity in key industries, and near-deflationary conditions despite efforts to boost consumption through subsidies and monetary policy.
• Exports of high-tech products, including electric vehicles and industrial robots, surged last year, while imports lagged due to subdued domestic spending and lower commodity prices.
• Economists warn that a new trade war could exacerbate global trade tensions, with countries like Mexico and the EU already imposing tariffs on Chinese goods to protect their domestic markets.