China's Record $1.6 Trillion Trade Surplus Fuels Tensions with Incoming Trump Administration

The trade surplus, driven by surging exports to the U.S., raises concerns of an imminent trade war as Trump prepares to impose higher tariffs.

China's trade surplus reached a historic $1.6 trillion in 2024, with exports to the U.S. growing 15.6% in December as businesses rushed to complete orders before higher tariffs take effect.
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods, escalating the risk of a trade war that could significantly impact China's export-reliant economy.
China's economy faces challenges of weak domestic demand, overcapacity in key industries, and near-deflationary conditions despite efforts to boost consumption through subsidies and monetary policy.
Exports of high-tech products, including electric vehicles and industrial robots, surged last year, while imports lagged due to subdued domestic spending and lower commodity prices.
Economists warn that a new trade war could exacerbate global trade tensions, with countries like Mexico and the EU already imposing tariffs on Chinese goods to protect their domestic markets.