Overview
- Rare earths, especially yttrium, have become a central bargaining item in the Trump–Xi summit and in U.S.–Japan coordination over supply resilience.
- China still dominates processing for most critical minerals, with international analyses estimating roughly 70% of refining market share for many key elements.
- Beijing’s licensing regime and uneven approvals have at times produced zero U.S.-bound shipments of yttrium, forcing temporary factory closures and costing companies revenue.
- The U.S. has poured billions into domestic miners and processors and some firms have begun limited deliveries, but analysts say onshoring will not eliminate reliance on Chinese supplies until the 2030s.
- Because refining rare earths is chemically complex and time consuming, officials warn that negotiations with China and allied industrial investment will shape whether short-term bottlenecks persist or ease.