Overview
- German defense suppliers report no immediate production cuts after stockpiling and other precautions, according to the industry association BDSV.
- Beijing tightened export rules in October and signaled it could halt military-use shipments, with new end‑use disclosures seen by experts as unacceptable for arms makers.
- China controls roughly 80% of global rare-earth output and over 90% of refining, leaving Germany exposed to potential bottlenecks in key weapons programs.
- European alternatives would require multi‑year investment and faster permitting, while German deposits such as in Saxony remain largely unexplored and lack capable industrial partners.
- Following late‑October deescalation, Trump and Xi agreed to a temporary suspension of U.S.-bound restrictions, yet low prices and Chinese cost advantages continue to discourage non‑China capacity; U.S. efforts focus on defense magnets and critical metals via price guarantees and funding.