China’s Q3 Growth Slows to 4.8% With Industry and Exports Leading as U.S.–China Talks Reopen

Overview

• Official figures showed GDP rose 4.8% year on year in Q3, down from 5.2% in Q2, with September industrial output up 6.5%.
• Retail sales increased 3% in September and fixed‑asset investment fell 0.5% year to date, pointing to a sharp property downturn.
• China’s goods trade surplus reached roughly US$875 billion so far in 2025, underscoring the economy’s reliance on external demand.
• The IMF kept its 2025 China growth forecast at 4.8% and warned of a slower pace near 4.2% in 2026.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng this week, and stocks in Asia, the U.S. and Brazil climbed on the softer tone in trade tensions.