Overview
- Official data released Monday show third-quarter GDP rose 4.5% year-on-year, slightly above forecasts and lifting nine-month growth to 4.6%.
- A surge in tech and AI-related exports powered the upside, with industrial output rising and China on track for a record trade surplus.
- Household spending and private investment stayed weak, retail sales improved only modestly and property investment fell about 20.6% year-to-date.
- Beijing has used targeted tools such as mortgage subsidies, selective rate moves and 550 billion yuan in unused local debt quotas rather than large-scale monetary easing.
- Higher energy costs from the Iran war and rising trade tensions, especially limits on hybrid-vehicle shipments to the EU, pose near-term risks that could force more fiscal support if Q4 momentum fades.