Overview

• China’s GDP expanded 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 5.4% in Q1 and roughly matching Beijing’s 2025 growth target of about 5%.
• June exports rose 5.8% annually, with shipments to the United States jumping 32.4% month-on-month to $38.2 billion following the London trade framework.
• Industrial production beat expectations with a 6.8% gain in June, while retail sales grew 4.8%, falling short of economist forecasts.
• Beijing has rolled out fiscal and monetary measures, including consumption subsidies, to counter deflationary pressures and a faltering property sector.
• Key elements of a comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal remain unresolved, leaving growth exposed to the risk of renewed tariff tensions.