Overview

• China’s GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, lifting first-half expansion to 5.3% and surpassing the annual 5% target.
• June exports jumped 5.8% and imports rose 1.1%, benefiting from front-loaded shipments under the US tariff truce and increased sales to ASEAN nations.
• Retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% in June from 6.4% in May, highlighting persistent consumer caution amid deflationary pressures.
• Property investment contracted 11.2% in the first half, deepening the real estate downturn and dampening overall domestic demand.
• Citigroup economists see limited urgency for additional stimulus, while Morgan Stanley warns of a third-quarter slowdown and forecasts a 0.5–1 trillion yuan supplementary budget.