Overview

• Official data show China’s GDP expanded 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, edging above Reuters forecasts and sustaining a 5.3% pace for the first half of 2025.
• A mid-May US-China tariff truce lowered duties on Chinese goods and spurred front-loaded export gains, though momentum may falter after the August deadline.
• Retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% in June from 6.4% in May, underscoring soft domestic consumption despite ongoing subsidy programs.
• Property investment plunged 11.2% in the first half, marking a new low for the sector and dragging on overall economic growth.
• Producer prices fell at their fastest rate in nearly two years in June, heightening deflationary risks that policy makers will address at a late-July Politburo meeting.