Overview
- China’s economy, which posted 5.0% year‑over‑year growth Thursday according to its statistics bureau, beat forecasts and was led by factories and trade.
- March customs data showed export growth slowed to 2.5%, raising concern that high oil costs and weaker overseas demand will sap momentum, though large oil reserves have cushioned China’s energy bill.
- The IMF this week cut its 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% and said the Iran war’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing up energy prices and inflation.
- Europe looks most exposed, with the IMF trimming Germany’s 2026 forecast to 0.8% and a March IW survey finding 39% of German firms plan lower investment as Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned of a “massive” hit to growth.
- A prolonged Hormuz disruption could lift global inflation to about 5.4%–6.0%, the IMF estimates, because the narrow waterway carries a large share of the world’s oil and liquefied gas shipments.