Overview
- China’s economy, which reported first‑quarter growth of 5.0% year over year on Thursday, beat forecasts on strong factories and exports while March retail sales rose only 1.7%.
- Early strain is visible as export growth slowed sharply in March and producer prices turned positive, with China’s statistics bureau warning of a more volatile external backdrop and weak domestic demand.
- The IMF cut its 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% and said a severe case could drop growth to 2.0% with inflation near 6%, citing Hormuz shipping blocks that push up oil and freight costs through a strait that carries about a fifth of seaborne crude.
- The UK logged a surprise 0.5% GDP gain in February before the conflict, leaving a net energy importer exposed to higher bills as the Bank of England signals caution on any quick interest‑rate moves.
- Australia’s labor market held steady in March with unemployment at 4.3%, in the first full post‑conflict month, while economists warned a prolonged oil spike could drive rate hikes and strain mortgage holders.