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yesterday

China’s Pro-Birth Drive Falters as Births Slide and Child-Free Trend Spreads

Experts say current incentives overlook core costs that deter marriage or childbearing.

Image
Women push baby strollers as they walk along a street in Beijing on January 4, 2026. A decade since China scrapped its stringent one-child policy and implemented a two-child policy in January 2016, the nation is finding itself dealing with a looming demographic crisis. The country's population has declined for three consecutive years, with United Nations demography models predicting it could fall from 1.4 billion today to 800 million by 2100. (Photo by Adek BERRY / AFP)

Overview

  • Official counts show the population contracted for a third straight year through 2024, when births fell to 9.54 million, about half the 2016 total.
  • Beijing has introduced payments of $500 per child under three, tax breaks, housing support, and extended maternity leave, yet uptake and impact remain limited.
  • Young adults increasingly embrace DINK lifestyles and delay marriage, with demographers reporting weak fertility intentions among the newer generation.
  • Xi Jinping has elevated population security as a priority, as authorities promote marriage and births for heterosexual couples and impose value-added tax on condoms and other contraceptives.
  • The legacy of the one-child policy and a rapidly aging society deepen the strain, with the UN projecting China’s population could drop to 633 million by 2100 and analysts warning of profound economic consequences.