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China’s Population Shrinks Again as 2025 Births Hit Record Low

New figures show policy incentives have failed to lift fertility, intensifying pension and labor‑market strains.

Overview

  • Official data report a fourth straight annual decline, with the population falling by roughly 3–3.39 million to about 1.404–1.405 billion in 2025.
  • Births dropped to 7.92 million and the crude birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000, while deaths rose to 11.31 million.
  • Beijing’s measures — a one‑time cash subsidy of about 3,600 yuan per child, new tax breaks for childcare and matchmaking services, and a 13% VAT now applied to contraceptives — have shown limited impact.
  • China’s 60‑and‑over population has reached about 323 million (roughly 23%), and experts estimate fertility near one, raising warnings of pension stress by the mid‑2030s and a shrinking worker‑to‑retiree ratio.
  • The demographic update accompanied figures showing 5% GDP growth in 2025, as analysts caution that sustaining economic momentum will be harder with a declining workforce.