Overview

• China's population has declined for the second consecutive year, with a record low birth rate in 2023 and a wave of COVID-19 deaths resulting in a population decline of 2 million.
• China's largest demographic group, about 300 million people currently aged 50 to 60, are set to leave the workforce at a time when pension budgets are already stretched.
• The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences sees the pension system running out of money by 2035, with about a third of the country's provincial-level jurisdictions running pension budget deficits.
• China's second-largest group, about 230 million people aged 30 to 49, are in a prime period for consumption. Once this group reaches their 50s, they are expected to participate less in domestic consumption.
• China's accelerated population decline will weaken China’s economy and, through it, the world’s economy. It will put downward pressure on Chinese consumer spending and upward pressure on wages and government spending.