Overview
- Chicago soybean futures closed near US$404 per tonne with a weekly gain of about 5.6%, and Rosario cash values rose ARS 5,000 to ARS 480,000 as Chinese buyers booked four additional U.S. cargoes of roughly 240,000 tonnes for late 2025 to early 2026.
- Market focus turns to the October–January shipment window, with traders reporting immediate strength across the oilseed complex following confirmation of renewed U.S.–China purchases.
- Argentina shipped about 12 million tonnes of whole soybeans to China in 2025—around four times its ten‑year average—shifting beans away from domestic crushing that industry leaders now aim to rebuild by redirecting exports to other Asian destinations.
- Chinese and Senasa guidance that exported soybean meal must be processed in Argentina limits triangulation and helps preserve the country’s processing role, even as current crushing margins remain negative on nearby positions.
- Analysts say increased Chinese demand for U.S. sorghum poses a downside risk to Argentine sorghum prices with shipment timing still unclear, and local farm groups note the soy price bump offers limited upside because much of the 2025 crop was already sold.