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China’s October Data Signal Broader Slowdown, With Retail and Factory Growth at Year Lows

Policy support is expected to take time to revive demand.

Overview

  • Retail sales rose 2.9% year over year and industrial output grew 4.9% in October, both the weakest since August 2024 and softer than September’s readings.
  • Fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% in January–October versus a year earlier, a deeper decline than forecast and worse than the 0.5% drop through September.
  • The housing downturn persisted, with new home prices posting their fastest monthly fall in a year and property investment remaining a major drag.
  • Exports unexpectedly contracted in October after recent resilience, with trade strains preceding a late-month U.S.–China tariff pause.
  • Beijing has announced over 1 trillion yuan in additional fiscal measures since September as the PBOC signals limited new easing, and the NBS warned of external uncertainties and domestic structural pressures.