Overview
- The 15th five-year plan covering 2026–2030 is slated for formal release next March following the Fourth Plenum’s high-level guidance.
- The party communique emphasizes advancing China as a manufacturing powerhouse and achieving scientific and technological self-reliance under “new quality productive forces.”
- Analysts and state media highlight China’s institutional capacity to manage external pressures and policy execution, citing greater confidence after the 14th plan’s shocks.
- Public commentary urges the plan to include an explicit household consumption target, such as lifting the share to 50% of GDP by 2035, though this remains a proposal rather than policy.
- Coverage situates the planning focus within intensified US-China competition and recent headwinds, with the latest signals prioritizing industry upgrading over a shift toward consumption.