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3d ago

China’s H1 Growth Tops 5% Target on Export Boost, Politburo to Weigh Stimulus

Policymakers are maintaining a wait-and-see stance on new stimulus until after the July Politburo meeting, weighing fading export support against weak consumption and deflationary pressures.

People take escalators as shoppers, at right downstairs, select clothing at a fashion boutique store inside a shopping mall, in Beijing on Sunday, July 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
An earth mover transports soil at a construction site in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.)
Image
Shipping containers and gantry cranes are seen at the Yantian port at night in Shenzhen, in southern China's Guangdong province on April 14, 2025. Markets on April 14 welcomed a US tariffs reprieve for electronics, but President Donald Trump warned no country would get "off the hook" in his trade war -- especially China. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP) (Photo by JADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images)

Overview

  • Official data show China’s economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter and 5.3% in the first half, exceeding the government’s full-year target of around 5%.
  • A mid-May trade truce with the United States cut tariffs and spurred exporters to front-load shipments, temporarily lifting export growth.
  • Industrial output accelerated while retail sales slowed and property investment fell sharply, highlighting uneven domestic demand.
  • Citigroup economists predict no immediate stimulus before the July Politburo meeting, though PBOC adviser Huang Yiping and academics have proposed up to ¥1.5 trillion in new support.
  • Analysts warn that persistent deflationary pressures and looming external uncertainties could slow growth in the second half of 2025.