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10h ago

China’s H1 GDP Tops 5% on Export Surge, Stimulus Deferred Until Politburo

Policymakers signal no major new support before the late-July Politburo meeting following strong export-led output gains

People take escalators as shoppers, at right downstairs, select clothing at a fashion boutique store inside a shopping mall, in Beijing on Sunday, July 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
An earth mover transports soil at a construction site in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.)
Image
Shipping containers and gantry cranes are seen at the Yantian port at night in Shenzhen, in southern China's Guangdong province on April 14, 2025. Markets on April 14 welcomed a US tariffs reprieve for electronics, but President Donald Trump warned no country would get "off the hook" in his trade war -- especially China. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP) (Photo by JADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images)

Overview

  • China’s economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter and 5.3% in the first half, surpassing the government’s full-year growth target of around 5%.
  • A mid-May U.S. tariff truce cut duties from 145% to about 55%, prompting exporters to front-load shipments and boost Q2 performance.
  • Industrial output jumped 6.8% in June even as retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%, underscoring an uneven recovery between manufacturing and consumption.
  • Fixed-asset investment rose 2.8% in H1 while property investment plunged 11.2%, reflecting a deepening downturn in the real estate sector.
  • Policymakers plan to defer major stimulus until after the Politburo meeting despite calls for up to 1.5 trillion yuan in new support to counter weak domestic demand and looming tariff risks.