Overview

• Official data show Q3 GDP rose 4.8% year over year, down from 5.2% in Q2 and 5.4% in Q1, with September retail sales growth easing to 3% and property investment falling 13.9% from a year earlier.
• Exports continue to cushion the slowdown, with shipments to the U.S. down 27% last month but rising to the EU (+14%), Southeast Asia (+15.6%) and Africa (+56.4%).
• The Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum is meeting through Thursday to set economic guidelines and shape the next Five‑Year Plan, which analysts expect to emphasize technological self‑reliance and supply‑chain security.
• Economists point to deflation risks and heavy reliance on state-led investment, and many anticipate a People’s Bank of China rate cut before year‑end.
• Trade friction remains elevated with stricter U.S. tech export curbs and tariff threats from President Trump, China’s tighter rare‑earth controls, and plans for new U.S.–China economic talks announced by Xinhua.