Overview
- Official data show GDP up 4.8% year over year in the third quarter, with September retail sales growth easing to 3% as industrial output rose 6.5% on export strength.
- Property-sector stress deepened as real-estate investment fell 13.9% year over year and new-home prices declined, reinforcing deflationary pressures and weak consumer confidence.
- Exports continue to prop up activity, with shipments shifting away from the United States; U.S.-bound exports fell 27% in September as sales to the EU rose 14%, Southeast Asia 15.6% and Africa 56.4%.
- Foreign direct investment fell nearly 13% in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting caution as U.S. and Western technology controls and tariff threats weigh on sentiment.
- The Fourth Plenum is drafting the 2026–2030 plan that prioritizes high-tech investment and supply‑chain resilience; Beijing has tightened rare‑earth export controls, and both sides say China and the U.S. will convene new economic talks as soon as feasible.