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China's Fiscal Strategy Hinges on US Election Outcome

Beijing's economic plans are influenced by potential shifts in US trade policies as it considers targeted stimulus measures.

  • China's National People's Congress Standing Committee is meeting to decide on fiscal measures amid economic challenges, including high youth unemployment and a struggling property market.
  • Chinese policymakers are cautious about announcing large-scale stimulus before understanding the US election results, which could drastically affect US-China trade relations.
  • Premier Li Qiang has expressed confidence in reaching China's GDP growth target of around 5% and highlighted the country's policy flexibility.
  • The potential fiscal package may focus on restructuring local government debt and recapitalizing state-owned banks, rather than a broad stimulus aimed at boosting consumption.
  • Market sentiment in China has improved recently, partly due to expectations of stimulus and stronger services activity, but uncertainty remains tied to the US election outcome.
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