China's Fiscal Strategy Hinges on US Election Outcome
Beijing's economic plans are influenced by potential shifts in US trade policies as it considers targeted stimulus measures.
- China's National People's Congress Standing Committee is meeting to decide on fiscal measures amid economic challenges, including high youth unemployment and a struggling property market.
- Chinese policymakers are cautious about announcing large-scale stimulus before understanding the US election results, which could drastically affect US-China trade relations.
- Premier Li Qiang has expressed confidence in reaching China's GDP growth target of around 5% and highlighted the country's policy flexibility.
- The potential fiscal package may focus on restructuring local government debt and recapitalizing state-owned banks, rather than a broad stimulus aimed at boosting consumption.
- Market sentiment in China has improved recently, partly due to expectations of stimulus and stronger services activity, but uncertainty remains tied to the US election outcome.