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4w ago

China’s Factory Slump Extends to Eight Months as Services Turn Negative

Weak domestic demand, led by the property slump, keeps pressure on policymakers.

Workers build Zeekr 009 electric minivans at Zeekr's factory in Ningbo, China, April 20, 2025. REUTERS/Nick Carey/File Photo
Image
Workers walk between precision-machining machines for automotive parts inside a factory at Kyowa Industrial Co. in Takasaki, Gunma Prefecture, Japan April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Issei Kato
Employees work at the assembly line of the Moscow Automobile Factory Moskvich, after the production of cars under the Soviet-era brand Moskvich at French carmaker Renault's former plant was launched in Moscow, Russia, November 23, 2022. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina

Overview

  • Official data for November put the manufacturing PMI at 49.2, its eighth straight month below 50, while the non‑manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 for the first contraction since December 2022.
  • A private RatingDog/S&P Global survey showed the manufacturing PMI at 49.9, with export orders rising at the fastest pace in eight months after the U.S.–China trade truce but domestic orders softening.
  • Services cooled as the Golden Week boost faded and property‑linked activity stayed weak, and construction registered 49.6 with non‑manufacturing new orders down to 45.7.
  • Pockets of resilience included high‑tech manufacturing at 50.1 and stronger readings for small factories, while business expectations improved to 53.1.
  • Analysts say broad new stimulus looks unlikely immediately as officials weigh options ahead of December policy meetings, with the economy on track for about 5% growth this year after 4.8% in the third quarter.