Overview

• China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in July, marking a fourth straight month of contraction in factory activity.
• Negotiations in Stockholm failed to prolong the 90-day tariff suspension agreed in May, setting its expiration for mid-August.
• New export orders remained in contraction even though overall exports rose 5.8% year-on-year in June, signaling fading benefits from the tariff pause.
• NBS statistician Zhao Qinghe cited the traditional off-season and weather disruptions—high temperatures, heavy rains and floods—as key drivers of July’s downturn.
• A recent Politburo meeting produced no announcements of substantial new stimulus despite mounting export and domestic demand headwinds.