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China’s Factory PMI Dips to 49.3 in July as Export Orders Contract Again

Export orders have now contracted for 15 months with the U.S. tariff truce ending next week

Image
A worker inspects a steel coil on the factory floor at the ArcelorMittal Dofasco steel mill in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada March 12, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File Photo
General view of the city centre skyline showing construction cranes and commercial buildings in Dublin, Ireland, January 25, 2022. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo
Employees work on the automobile assembly line of Renault Trafic vehicles at the Renault Sandouville car factory, near Le Havre, France, March 29, 2024. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo

Overview

  • China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in July, marking its fourth month of contraction and missing economists’ forecasts of 49.7.
  • New export orders remained in contraction for a 15th consecutive month, reflecting mounting tariff uncertainty ahead of the mid-August truce expiry.
  • The non-manufacturing PMI eased to 50.1 from 50.5, signalling slower growth in China’s services and construction sectors.
  • Beijing’s Politburo meeting on July 30 yielded no indication of broad new stimulus, with policy support limited to targeted consumer subsidies.
  • Private-sector S&P Global data showed factory activity contracting in Japan and South Korea, underscoring a wider regional slowdown driven by trade tensions.