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China’s Factory and Services PMIs Tick Back Into Expansion in December

Economists see only a tentative improvement given property debt strains plus excess capacity.

Overview

  • The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December, ending a run of monthly contractions since March.
  • The non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.2, rebounding from 49.5 in November.
  • Both gauges sat just above the 50 line that divides expansion from contraction, signaling only marginal growth.
  • The manufacturing reading topped a Bloomberg survey forecast of 49.2 points.
  • National Bureau of Statistics official Huo Lihui cited a general improvement, while Capital Economics’ Julian Evans-Pritchard warned structural headwinds are likely to persist into 2026.