Overview

• S&P Global reports Chinese goods shipments to developing countries have doubled since 2015 to roughly US$1.6 trillion, including a 65% jump in the past five years.
• The acceleration is tied to U.S. tariff measures under President Trump, and S&P says it could usher in a new commerce order with South–South trade as the center of gravity.
• Exports to the Global South now exceed China’s combined sales to the United States and Western Europe by more than 50%, with growth to those markets at 28% and 58% over the past decade.
• Chinese companies are expanding manufacturing bases across developing regions, with investment flows to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam quadrupling over the past decade to an average of US$8.8 billion a year.
• Beijing has moved to lower barriers for partners, including Xi Jinping’s June pledge to eliminate all import tariffs on almost all African nations, even as S&P flags local pushback over cheap imports displacing industry.