Overview
- Customs data show outbound shipments fell 1.1% from a year earlier, reversing September’s 8.3% rise and missing a Reuters-polled forecast for 3% growth.
- Imports grew 1.0% year on year, down from 7.4% in September, leaving a $90.07 billion surplus that undershot expectations.
- Sales to the United States dropped about 25% in October, the seventh straight month of double‑digit declines, making the U.S. the main drag on the headline figure.
- Economists attribute the setback to the unwinding of tariff‑driven front‑loading and a high base from October 2024, with any lift from the late‑October Trump–Xi de‑escalation likely to appear later in Q4 or early 2026.
- Weakness extended beyond the U.S., with yuan‑denominated exports to Russia down 22% and growth to Europe and Southeast Asia slowing, while softer domestic demand restrained import growth.