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China's Export Rebound Pushes Trade Surplus Above $1 Trillion as Flows Shift From U.S.

Electronics-driven trade diversion to Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa offsets the U.S. slump.

Overview

  • Official data show November exports up 5.9% year over year and imports up 1.9%, with a monthly surplus near $111.7 billion that helped lift the January–November surplus past $1 trillion.
  • Shipments to the United States fell 28.6% in November and imports from the U.S. dropped about 19%, while exports to the European Union rose by roughly 14% and to Africa by 27.5%, with sales to ASEAN up 8.2%.
  • Exports to Germany increased 15.5% in November as China’s imports from Germany declined 4.2%, underscoring trade reorientation toward Europe.
  • Analysts attribute resilience to trade rerouting and strong demand for electronics and certain chips, with Capital Economics and Eurasia Group citing price competitiveness and component shortages.
  • Germany’s October exports were flat overall (+0.1% month on month) as sales to the U.S. fell 7.8% and to China 5.8%, even as industrial output rose 1.5% and Berlin pressed Beijing on market access and export controls during Foreign Minister Wadephul’s visit.