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China’s Export Rebound Lifts 2025 Trade Surplus Above $1 Trillion

Customs data point to a pivot toward non‑U.S. markets, with tepid imports alongside a one‑year tariff pause shaping Beijing’s year‑end policy meetings.

Overview

  • Exports rose 5.9% year on year in November in dollar terms, beating forecasts, while imports increased 1.9%, taking the monthly surplus to about $111.68 billion.
  • The surplus reached roughly $1.08 trillion for January through November, marking the first time China has topped $1 trillion in any year.
  • Shipments to the United States fell about 28.6% to 29% from a year earlier, offset by stronger sales to other destinations, including a 14.8% rise to the European Union, 35.8% to Australia and 8.2% to Southeast Asia.
  • A late‑October U.S.–China truce paused some tariffs and controls for about a year, though manufacturers still report contracting conditions with an eighth straight month of factory downturn.
  • European pressure is building over China’s widening surplus, with France warning of possible tariffs, as policymakers in Beijing signal plans to bolster domestic demand in the face of weak imports.