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China’s EV Output on Track for 8 Million in 2025

Analysts warn China’s manufacturing scale plus supplier dominance are eroding German brands’ position.

Overview

  • China built 6.52 million battery‑electric vehicles in the first nine months of 2025, up about 45% year over year, and is projected by Ferdinand Dudenhöffer to reach 7.9 million for the full year.
  • BYD led with roughly 1.58 million BEVs through September, followed by Geely with about 836,000 and Tesla with roughly 603,000, with Tesla’s Shanghai plant accounting for 49% of the company’s global output.
  • China’s production growth outpaced global BEV sales growth of 36% reported by PwC, increasing China’s share of worldwide output as the country maintains the largest lithium‑ion battery capacity.
  • Dudenhöffer calls China’s EV manufacturing base a very large challenge for Germany, noting VW and Audi plan China‑developed models for 2026 and suggesting VW’s exports from Germany to China are set to wind down.
  • A Focus analysis highlights German 50/50 joint ventures in China that split profits with local partners, while Chinese automakers expand in Europe with wholly owned plants, intensifying calls to de‑risk and diversify.