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China’s EV Export Surge Intensifies as U.S. Market Slumps After Tax Credit Expiry

Expiring incentives and rule rollbacks created a U.S. sales trough, contrasting with China’s expanding push into overseas markets.

Overview

  • China’s customs data show EV exports jumped 87% year over year in November, with Asia up 71%, Europe up 63%, and Latin America and the Caribbean up 283%.
  • China’s domestic market is cooling as a prolonged price war drives consolidation, with the top 10 makers now near 95% share and analysts warning growth could slow further with a reinstated purchase tax.
  • Chinese manufacturers are ramping global footprints, with BYD exporting more than 131,000 cars in November and preparing a Hungary plant for 2026, while Geely expanded to about 90 countries and boosted exports fourfold in the first half.
  • U.S. EV sales spiked before the Sept. 30 end of the $7,500 federal credit, then plunged 46% in Q4 versus Q3 to a 5.7% market share, according to Cox Automotive.
  • Automakers have reworked U.S. lineups and timing as affordability remains a constraint—only nine sub-$40,000 EVs are available—though analysts expect more lower-priced models in 2026–27 and note some states have raised incentives.