Overview

• National carbon dioxide output declined about 1% year on year from January to June 2025, according to CREA’s analysis.
• Power-sector emissions fell roughly 3% as record wind and solar generation outpaced electricity demand growth, with coal use in power down 3% and gas-fired generation up 6%.
• Chemicals emerged as the key outlier, with coal use as fuel and feedstock rising about 20% in the first half after a 10% increase in 2024.
• CREA estimates the chemicals sector emitted about 690 million tonnes of CO2 in 2024, roughly 410–440 million tonnes more than petroleum-based routes, and its expansion has added about 3% to national emissions since 2020 with potential for a further 2% by 2029.
• A June 1 policy change is expected to reduce wind and solar project profits and slow new installations, while the property slump cut cement and steel output, with deeper steel reductions limited by a tilt toward coal-based production over electric arc furnaces.