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China's CO2 Emissions Hold Flat for 18 Months as Solar Boom Lifts Clean Power

Rapid growth in clean energy is meeting new electricity demand, leaving Q4 as the decider for whether 2025 registers a small drop.

Overview

  • Third-quarter emissions were unchanged year on year, extending an 18‑month stretch of flat or falling output, with September down about 3% from a year earlier.
  • Electricity demand rose 6.1% in Q3, and low‑carbon sources supplied roughly 90% of the increase, keeping power‑sector emissions steady.
  • Solar generation jumped about 46% and wind 11% in Q3, while China built roughly 240 GW of new solar and 61 GW of wind capacity in the first nine months of 2025.
  • Transport emissions fell around 5% and cement and steel declined, but plastics and chemicals rose roughly 10% as plastic production grew about 12% year to date.
  • Beijing pledged a 7%–10% economy‑wide cut by 2035 from the eventual peak and is on track to miss its 2020–25 carbon‑intensity target, putting weight on the 15th Five‑Year Plan.