Overview
- An independent CREA analysis published via Carbon Brief estimates China’s CO2 from fossil fuels and cement fell about 3.1% in Q3 2026, the largest quarterly drop since 2022.
- Official National Energy Administration figures show coal’s share of power slipped below 50% to roughly 49.1% by end‑September while solar, wind and nuclear supplied about 110 terawatt‑hours more electricity year‑on‑year in the first nine months.
- Oil use for road transport fell sharply in Q3 as shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz reduced crude flows and electric vehicle adoption accelerated, cutting demand for petrol and diesel.
- Analysts caution the drop may not signal a lasting peak because China added substantial new coal capacity—CREA estimates about 58.7 GW through August—and estimates of wind and solar curtailment conflict with NEA’s high utilization rates.
- Released Friday ahead of COP31, the Q3 data could influence climate talks but the longer‑term path depends on faster grid integration of renewables, clearer curtailment accounting, and whether weaker demand persists.