Overview
- A CREA analysis published on Friday, Nov. 6, 2026, found China’s energy- and industry-related CO2 emissions fell 3.1% year-on-year in Q3 2026, the largest quarterly decline since the 2022 lockdowns.
- The fall was driven by a roughly 3% drop in coal use and a 3.3% fall in coal-fired power generation as solar, wind and nuclear added about 110 TWh more generation than a year earlier.
- Oil consumption fell about 4% in Q3 with transport fuel use plunging roughly 9% as electric cars and taxis gained share and EV electricity use rose sharply.
- Short-term factors that helped the decline included mild weather, slower GDP growth and reduced oil shipments after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while higher coal prices slowed coal-to-chemicals output.
- The decline may not persist unless China eases grid integration limits for new renewables, restrains the expansion of coal capacity, or sustains strong clean-power and EV growth.