China's Central Bank Faces Challenges in Stimulating Economy
The People's Bank of China struggles to balance monetary easing with risks of financial instability, weak credit demand, and a depreciating yuan.
- The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a 'moderately loose' monetary policy stance but faces limited room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions.
- Weak consumer and business confidence has led to a significant decline in loan demand, with new yuan loans dropping over 20% in 2024 compared to the previous year.
- The central bank suspended treasury bond purchases due to asset scarcity, highlighting resource constraints and concerns about the yuan's depreciation.
- Analysts warn that further monetary easing could create financial market bubbles, hurt bank profitability, and increase capital outflow risks.
- Despite challenges, the PBOC is expected to implement additional rate and reserve requirement cuts in 2025 to support growth, though its capacity for aggressive action is constrained.