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China's Carbon Emissions to Peak This Winter, Seven Years Ahead of Schedule

The country's strategic bet on clean-tech dominance and massive renewable energy projects are driving a faster-than-expected decline in carbon emissions.

  • China's carbon emissions are likely to peak this winter, seven years ahead of schedule, and then go into exponential decline due to the country's strategic and economic bet on clean-tech dominance.
  • China is building a massive network of 'clean energy bases' in its deserts, with solar and wind parks stretching from Inner Mongolia to Qinghai on the Tibetan plateau.
  • China is approving two new coal plants a week, but these will be used to buttress wind and solar rather than as baseload, and to avert a repeat of blackouts that traumatized the Chinese elites in 2021-2022.
  • The coal that is burned will increasingly come with carbon capture, with a project underway in the mining province of Shanxi to turn CO2 into 'gold' by making carbon nanotubes, which boost the power of lithium-ion batteries in EVs.
  • China's output of solar panels was 310 GW in 2022; it will be 500 GW in 2023; and 1000 GW in 2025 – four times the total installation of new solar worldwide last year.
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